Some analysts will continue to focus on Taiwan -- semiconductors, alleged national humiliation, etc. etc …. The narrative is: that if we "give" democratic Taiwan to the Chinese communists, there will be world peace. Thankfully many national policymakers are not this misguided. I have been watching closely the US-Philippines, Japan-Philippines, and US/Japan-Vietnam/ASEAN moves. My theory is this: this is a dangerous moment in world history when one superpower, the US, is in domestic disarray because of the rise of American fascism; while the would-be next superpower, China, has been stillborn -- neither powerful enough to create a new Pax Sinica; nor small enough to not do major damage as it flails and circles the drain. The main issue is not superficial and myopic like Taiwan-only -- though Taiwan is an important piece; or whether we are talking to the Chinese nicely enough. The category of analysis is world order, and the theater of this struggle begins with the South and East Seas, not the Taiwan Strait. Though yes, Taiwan is a key chokepoint between the two seas.
If this is what's happening, then the US focus on Vietnam and the Philippines makes a ton more sense. I have written previously that the postwar American-invented world order is maritime-based, US Navy-enforced, and focused on free access to global raw material, labor, manufacturing, and markets. A not-quite superpower communist China, reaching into the South and East Seas attempting to “split” the Pacific and Indian Oceans challenges this world order. An American superpower in domestic disarray makes for a dangerous decade ahead. One can "give" democratic Taiwan to the Chinese tomorrow. Hell, one can even "give" democratic Japan (the truth is if Taiwan falls to the communists both Korea and Japan are dead nations walking ....) -- it would not change the underlying, structural, global forces at work, no more than if we "give" democratic Ukraine to the Russians. I have been impressed with the complex global alliances the Biden liberal hawks have restored and enhanced. However, the best bet to ensure global stability and avoid a hot world war is to invest in American and global liberal democratic social welfare safety nets -- to fund global democratic institutions. Populism-fascism across global liberal democracies will make a world war inevitable. 2.10.2023
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